Free PDF The Climate Casino: Risk, Uncertainty, and Economics for a Warming World
Free PDF The Climate Casino: Risk, Uncertainty, and Economics for a Warming World
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The Climate Casino: Risk, Uncertainty, and Economics for a Warming World
Free PDF The Climate Casino: Risk, Uncertainty, and Economics for a Warming World
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Audible Audiobook
Listening Length: 10 hours and 47 minutes
Program Type: Audiobook
Version: Unabridged
Publisher: Recorded Books
Audible.com Release Date: February 6, 2019
Language: English, English
ASIN: B07NDH9J75
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
I have been a climate scientist for more than 30 years, always staying away from voicing my opinion about policy issues. This book among other recent events has caused me to speak out more. The case for coal being the dominant cause of AGW is made convincingly in this book. Most other fixes are inconsequential. The various alternative approaches to dealing with the problem are explained clearly. Taxation of carbon via cap and trade or a direct tax is covered nicely. Another key principle often misunderstood by the public is discounting, again explained and illustrated well. This is a great book, clearly written and accessible to all who want to know more about the subject. I hope it is read by millions of caring citizens.Gerald R. North
I was expecting a more dogmatic book pushing a specific agenda. That is not the case here. I thought Nordhaus spoke well about the limitations of modelling climate change and was even handed in presenting the costs and benefits of action. We should take steps to limit carbon emissions, not because there is a definite and known outcome, but rather because there is a higher likely hood of negative outcomes (the "casino").Such even handedness is apparent in such statements:-Clouds are really though for modelling because they both heat and cool the planet-Costs of warming seem to be about 1-2% of income-Temperatures are modelled to rise only about 1 degree over the next four decades-Warming would benefit a lot of the developed world (higher ag yields/co2 fertilization)-The health and economic impacts would most likely be small-Places 10 meters above sea level seem relatively safe from rising waters-Carbon Concentrations were 8x higher during the Jurassic periodThese are no reasons to not take action. If governments are going to tax anything, it makes sense to tax pollution. That would provide a pricing mechanism to the market to choose less polluting facilities and would incentivize the creation of new technologies. Given that the costs are not great, a carbon tax would not need to be high. The problem is also more tractable than I previously thought since 95% of US emissions are limited to electricity generation and transportation and as much as 80% of emissions come from the use of oil and coal.
Bill Nordhaus does a great job of approaching climate change from a risk management, business oriented approach, incorporating new information from scientists about the risks of climate change. And he summarizes by considering practical political limitations to getting anything done. With the latest data on the impacts of projected CO2 and Temperature within likely ranges we will see, he shows impacts over the range, costs to avoid the worst tipping points, etc. His discussion of tipping points is especially helpful as the risk of triggering catastrophic impacts hinges around tipping points, understanding them, assessing our odds of tripping them, and evaluating the costs of options we have in the near term for optimizing our strategies to try to avoid passing any of these catastrophic thresholds. I'm hoping my generation (the baby boomers) won't be held responsible for catastrophic climate change, and while things are not looking too good right now, this PhD economist provides some valuable tools to the practical among us who want to deal with this as optimally as possible. I hope more of us read his book and give this huge challenge some serious consideration.
Sober analysis looking at data as economist and scientist is what is promised and delivered. The analogy of a casino is apt as he explains that there is still uncertainty in many elements of the the science and economics. What becomes very clear in this logical approach is that we're "throwing the dice" if we do nothing or not. But if we want the odds to be more in our favor, we better be looking very seriously at taxing carbon--like now.I've read half a dozen books on climate change, this one is the one I chose for my book group, since it is clear, not idealogical and practical.One part I liked: He explains how there have been many dis-information campaigns in the past, such as with the tobacco industry denying that smoking caused cancer. He shows the challenge we face now is much more immense, since the window for preventing much more costly adaptations is closing rapidly.This book provides me the knowledge and language to speak out to my legislators and neighbors without sounding like an ideologue.
The first chapter says we have to educate the public. Everybody with a problem or wants to change the world starts off with this idea. The problems we face are probably extremely serious and I will depend on scientists, entrepreneurs, dictators, and eventually elected officials to work on solving them.After the slow start the book becomes fascinating as the author looks at climate changes from economics. What damages have we already done, what are future damages likely to be, and what will the costs be to move away from future damages.I like economics because it is simple. The news media gets way too excited but economics puts problems like hurricane damages Into GDP perspective.As the title suggests we are placing bets on our future. Some warming in some areas will be good for crops and good for snakes wanting to move north but there are many tipping points described by the author that will be difficult to deal with. Anybody want to pay for a dike around Florida or NY City?
The thesis of this book really is not that new - Nordhaus suggests using a free market system to regulate pollution. The real impact for me was his analysis of why alternative solutions such as geo-engineering will likely fail, as Congress currently is investing money in an idea they could learn about from a $10 book... This was assigned for a course and was a very quick read in addition to providing an overview of global warming.
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